EUR/USD from yesterday's  long 1.0642 to target 1.0795. EUR/USD achieved highs so far at 1.0764 or +122 pips. EUR/USD for NFP could easily trade to 1.0801 and 1.0807 then short to target 1.0752 and break targets 1.0720's. Once EUR/USD achieves it highs then short for the day is the way to trade. EUR/USD close today could easily achieve 1.0720's and not a good location for next week's longs or shorts as next week would begin at fairly dead neutral. Same story as last week when EUR/USD opened at 1.0734. EUR/USD overall support is derived from  deeply oversold EUR/CHF, EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD yet overbought to EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP. EUR/USD big break for higher is now located at 1.0830 and a continued rise to all averages. Break higher from 1.0830 targets easily 1.0933 then 1.0984. The EUR/USD long side prevails next week. USD/JPY rose from 114.00's to 131.00's. At current 129.00's and 130.00's, USD/JPY trades at the top of the range and deeply overbought short, medium and long term. USD/JPY should trade today to easily 129.28. GBP/JPY overall range is located from, 148.00's to 168.00's. At 163.00's, GBP/JPY trade near its range top. Good target today is 162.85 from short 163.87. NZD/USD's big break is found at 0.6593 and targets today 0.6587 and 0.6590. Good short opportunity to target 0.6535. JPY cross pairs contain a long way to go on the downside and from the big 3 as GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY. GBP/USD for NFP targets 1.2625 while EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD offer good lomgs heading into next week. DXY is again located at solid supports at 100 and 101. For SPX today, targets 4202 on the up side and 4048 below. Next Week's markets will trade the exact same as this week: fairly neutral wuthout dramatic moves. 

The European Central Bank is set to flag its first rate hike in more than a decade this week, while the Reserve Bank of Australia might step on the brakes harder. But as the laggards of the central bank world finally get their stakes on when it comes to tightening policy, investors will be on the lookout for more evidence that inflation may already be peaking in the United States. China’s economy will be in the spotlight too as trade and inflation readings are due as growth fears persist even after the easing of Shanghai’s lockdown.

The US reported better than expected job gains but slower monthly wage increases in May.  Signs of growing labor supply and falling pay may ease the path of Fed rate hikes.  The dollar may swing back down when the dust settles. Two months of weaker than expected wage increases in a row – is the most important thing for the Federal Reserve, which is fighting inflation. The rest is less important. The US gained 390,000 jobs in May, better than 328,000 expected, but on top of downward revisions. Real expectations stood at lower levels after the ADP data, and that helps explain the stronger dollar reaction.  However, Average Hourly Earnings advanced by only 0.3% in May, worse than the 0.4% projected and after another weak increase in April. Slower increases in salaries mean lower price pressures on inflation that the Federal Reserve can influence – the demand side. It cannot impact global and energy prices.  Moreover, yearly wage growth has slowed to 5.2% from 5.5$. While that fully met economists' expectations, it still reflects a deceleration. If peak inflation is in sight – or even in the rearview mirror – the Fed may halt its cycle of rate hikes, and weaken the dollar. Once prices pressures ease, the Fed could loosen its pedal from the metal. At the peak of inflation, a mountain is peeking through the clouds, but it might come out to full sight sooner rather than later. Therefore, I think the knee-jerk reaction in the dollar is unjustified, and it could see suffer substantial losses. The next big text is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report coming out next Friday. If Core CPI misses estimates, that would provide more proof – revealing another part of the peak in the inflation mountain – and sending the dollar down. 

Gold Price retreated ahead of the weekend amid renewed dollar strength. 10-year US Treasury bond yield closes in on 3% after upbeat US jobs report. Next week's ECB meeting and US inflation report could ramp up XAUUSD volatility.  Gold Price erased a portion of its weekly gains on Friday as US Treasury bond yields gained traction on the better-than-expected labor market data. XAUUSD remains on track to close the third straight week higher but the recent price action suggests that the pair could find it difficult to make a decisive move in either direction unless it breaks out of the $1,840-$1875 range. US yields push higher after US data  The monthly data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 390,000 in May. This reading surpassed the market forecast of 325,000. Additionally, April's print of 428,000 got revised higher to 436,000. Further details of the report showed that the Labor Force Participation Rate improved to 62.3% as expected and the annual wage inflation edged lower to 5.2%, matching analysts' estimates. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield pushed higher toward 3% with the initial reaction to the upbeat jobs report and caused XAUUSD to turn south following the two-day rally. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Is the uptrend expected to continue? Gold Price eyes ECB meeting, US CPI as next catalysts In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Lael Brainard, Vice Chairwoman of the US Federal Reserve, noted that it was very hard for her to see the case for a pause in rate hikes in September. “We’re certainly going to do what is necessary to bring inflation back down,” Brainard further added and said that the US economy still has a lot of momentum. These hawkish remarks failed to trigger a leg higher in the US Treasury bond yields and allowed gold to continue to trade in the upper half of its weekly range on Thursday.  Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its rate decision and release the monetary policy statement. The ECB is widely expected to hike its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) in July. Several ECB policymakers said in the past couple of weeks that the bank might need to start considering 50 bps rate hikes to tame inflation. Signs of loss of growth momentum in the European economy, however, puts the central bank in a tough position. In case the ECB reveals a hawkish rate outlook, XAUEUR could come under heavy bearish pressure and cause XAUUSD to edge lower as well. Nevertheless, the dollar’s market valuation would also be impacted in a negative way in that scenario and help gold limit its losses. ECB President Christine Lagarde Next Friday, the BLS will release the May inflation data. On a yearly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to edge lower to 8.2% from 8.3% in April. The market reaction to the inflation data should be pretty straightforward with a lower than expected CPI print weighing on US T-bond yields and providing a boost to XAUUSD and vice versa. Gold Price technical outlook Gold Price seems to have gone into a consolidation phase with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart moving sideways near 50. Although XAUUSD was able to close above the 200-day SMA for two straight days, the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend seems to have formed stiff resistance at $1,875. With a daily close above that level, gold could target the $1,890/$1,900 area (100-day SMA, 50-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement) and $1,915 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) afterwards. On the downside, $1,850 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) aligns as interim support before $1,840 (200-day SMA). In case the latter turns into resistance, this could be seen as a significant bearish development and attract sellers. In that scenario, additional losses toward $1,830 (June 1 low) could be witnessed. In short, gold needs to break out of the $1,875-$1,840 range in order to determine its next short-term direction. Gold Price Report: Commodity Supercycle

EUR/USD: Europe’s single currency staged an impressive rebound against its US counterpart on Thursday. US equities also rose, with the US Dollar Index (USDX) exploring lower territory, consequently underpinning the EUR/USD (0.9 per cent). Technically, we’re at an interesting juncture on the higher timeframes. In a market decisively trending lower since 2021, weekly Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.0778 is being tested. Though on the other side of the fence, price action on the daily timeframe rebounded from support at $1.0638. This places light on an ascending support-turned resistance, drawn from the low $1.0340. Also of particular relevance on the daily chart is the relative strength index (RSI) retesting (and holding) its 50.00 centreline, echoing the possibility of support. Out of the lower timeframes, H4 price rebounded from supply-turned demand from $1.0655-1.0632, alongside the H1 timeframe rebounded from a bullish AB=CD formation which dovetailed with a Quasimodo resistance-turned support at $1.0631 as well as a number of nearby Fibonacci ratios. Overhead, H4 resistance is at $1.0758 and H1 resistance can be seen at $1.0762. With weekly resistance ($1.0778) active, as well as the trend clearly favouring lower prices, and H1/H4 price nearing resistance at $1.0762-1.0758, a bearish scene could unfold from the noted lower timeframe resistances in upcoming sessions. AUD/USD: Upbeat risk sentiment and limited USD demand boosted appeal for the Australian dollar on Thursday. AUD/USD ended the session 1.3 per cent higher, on track to record a third consecutive weekly advance. Daily Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $0.7245 welcomed price action, a level benefitting from the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7256 (dynamic resistance). Upstream calls attention towards Fibonacci resistance between $0.7364 and $0.7322. Of note on the daily scale, of course, is the relative strength index (RSI) cementing position north of its 50.00 centreline (positive momentum). For those who read recent technical writing you may recall the following, covering weekly structure: Recent weeks observed AUD/USD establish a lower low (breaching 28th Jan $0.6968 low) and subsequently fashion a 2-week recovery (3.2 per cent). While an extended pullback is on the table, this remains a sellers’ market in observance of a clear downtrend since August 2011 (check monthly scale) and weekly flow topping out at $0.8007 in early February 2021. Weekly support structure remains seen between $0.6632 and $0.6764, comprised a 100% Fibonacci projection, a price support, and a 50% retracement. Lower on the curve, H4 price is finding some grip above resistance at $0.7246 (now possible support), with subsequent interest to the upside shining light on H4 channel resistance, drawn from the high $0.7041, followed by H4 resistance at $0.7349. Lower, demand is seen from $0.7147-0.7204. On the H1, upside has 5th May $0.7266 as resistance after running above $0.72. With daily resistance active at $0.7245 in addition to the 200-day simple moving average, together with H1 price closing in on $0.7266, H4 sellers could make a show from channel resistance, extended from the high $0.7041. USD/JPY: Upside momentum slowed on Thursday and ended the session largely muted. This follows back-to-back dominant days for the USD/JPY. With that, here’s where we left the higher timeframes in recent studies: Leaving weekly support from ¥125.54 unopposed, USD/JPY trades 2.4 per cent higher on the week and threatens to refresh multi-year pinnacles. We also clearly remain entrenched within a primary bull trend, though daily price is now on the doorstep of reconnecting with supply at ¥131.93-131.10. Aiding the bullish picture is the daily timeframe’s relative strength index (RSI) strongly rebounding from 40.00-50.00 support (an area representing an oversold zone since May 2021). Coming from the H4 timeframe, price is retesting a Quasimodo resistance-turned support at ¥129.67. Respecting the aforesaid level unlocks the path to H4 Quasimodo resistance at ¥130.58. In conjunction with the H4 base, H1 crossed swords with demand at ¥129.21-129.55, though remains south of ¥130, as of writing. Overall, this remains a buyers’ market, with short-term flow likely to pull north of ¥130 and target H4 Quasimodo resistance at ¥130.58. GBP/USD: Fibonacci support between $1.2451 and $1.2471 served short-term flow well on Thursday, permitting H1 players to clear $1.25 in early Europe amid improved risk appetite. Subsequent price movement dethroned H1 resistance at $1.2554, echoing possible support in upcoming trade and drew light towards $1.26. Nestled above the noted psychological level is H4 resistance between $1.2686 and $1.2614, made up of a number of technical resistances. Meanwhile on the bigger picture, this market has been entrenched within a strong primary downtrend since early 2021, emphasising weekly resistance at $1.2719 and daily Quasimodo support-turned resistance at $1.2762 as a possible ceiling. Interestingly, the daily timeframe’s relative strength index (RSI) is attempting to find acceptance above the 50.00 centreline: positive momentum. As a result of current analysis, higher timeframe resistance resides between $1.2762 and $1.2719. Though on the lower timeframes, a whipsaw above...

EUR/USD - 1.0646 Euro's selloff from Monday's 1-month 1.0786 high to 1.0680 Tuesday and yesterday's break there to as low as 1.0628 in New York on rally in usd in tandem with US yields suggests correction from May's 5-year trough of 1.0350 has made a temporary top there and further weakness towards 1.0608 would be seen but oversold condition should keep price above 1.0568 and yield rebound. On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0680 would indicate pullback over and risk stronger gain towards 1.0706 before down. Data to be released on Thursday New Zealand import prices, export prices, Australia trade balance, imports, exports. Swiss CPI, U.K. Market Holiday, Italy Market Holiday, EU producer prices. Canada building permits, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, durables ex-defense, durables goods, durable ex-transport and factory orders.